Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f1…b91d politics 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$17
economics 13% −$2
other 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 92 -6.2% -15.1% 2% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage696d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) win the most seats in t Feb 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Next Ethereum hard fork live by end of 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 12h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $59 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $59 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 34d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 34d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 43d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 44d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 49d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 50d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 67d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 67d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 67d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 71d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 72d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 84d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 85d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 89d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 89d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 97d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 97d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 100d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 101d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 102d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 102d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 107d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 107d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records