Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f2…610f other 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$11
sports 24% −$25
politics 10% −$10
economics 7% −$17
crypto 5% −$4
culture 4% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 162 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $788 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $431 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $778 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $842 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $400 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $753 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $329 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $680 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $637 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $306 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $259 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 30 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $518 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $92 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $93 2h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 23h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 24h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $93 32h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $93 34h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $93 36h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $93 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $93 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $93 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $93 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $94 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $94 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 46h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $94 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $94 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $94 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $94 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $95 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $95 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1356 history records