Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
49 0x49f2…b3c3 crypto 825 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,593 (-5%) realized −$15,641 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%475W / 348L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,206
7 days+$291
14 days−$3,364
30 days−$8,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$21,618
other 2% −$104
sports 0% +$777
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 56% -9.0%
≤30d 424 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 57% -15.2%
≤90d 823 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 52% -15.3%
all 823 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 52% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 52% -15.3%
10% -20.2% 44% -23.4%
15% -27.9% 37% -30.8%
20% -35.0% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$378 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$15,641
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses475 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)823 / 825
History coverage79d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 44¢ 52¢ $250 $298 +$48 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $266 +$109 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $368 +$888 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $356 +$93 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $362 +$336 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $361 −$350 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$21 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $570 −$550 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,204 +$777 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $262 +$590 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $170 −$166 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$74 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $817 +$297 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $186 +$131 +71%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$59 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$89 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$143 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $144 +$110 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$89 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $153 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $177 +$74 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $137 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$56 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$57 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $299 +$204 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$135 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $361 −$355 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$158 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $260 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $374 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $266 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $259 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,256 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $448 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $356 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $699 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $362 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $570 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,980 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,204 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $852 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $262 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $82 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $88 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $154 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $712 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $395 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $401 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $415 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $317 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.38 · official $299.21 (match) · 1735 history records