Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f3…76fb crypto 1477 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,526 (-3%) realized −$9,538 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%1488W / 92L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day94.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$569
other 1% +$21
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1009 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 1567 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 1567 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 0% -13.6%
all 1567 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 0% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -21.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -29.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$165 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3,741
Realized−$9,538
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1488 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1580 / 1477
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day94.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,465 $2,475 +$10 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,110 $1,111 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? No 99¢ 100¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on November 19? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 2,290 on April 13, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 9AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on December 8? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 30? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 82,000 on May 10, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,200 on April 26, 9PM ET? Jun 15 $91 −$291 -319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on February 20? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 18 ET? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 20? Jun 15 $45 −$144 -320%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -56%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on February 23? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel not strike Yemen by 15 ET? Jun 15 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? Jun 15 $0 $0 -294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 13, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET? Jun 15 $0 +$10 +62307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on March 31, 11AM ET? Jun 15 $628 −$628 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $394 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $716 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $148 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $144 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $295 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,448 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $27 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $347 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $3 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $111 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $153 10h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $137 10h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 10h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 10h
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $137 10h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 11h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 11h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 11h
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 11h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 11h
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 11h
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 11h
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 14, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $303 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,740.95 · official $3,740.95 (match) · 3500 history records