Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f4…b8b2 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-6%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 68% 42% -15.9%
≤30d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 68% 42% -15.9%
≤90d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 68% 42% -15.9%
all 19 -13.1% -21.4% 68% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 42% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 21% -23.9%
15% -35.8% 5% -31.3%
20% -42.1% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 87¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.20 · official $27.62 (match) · 41 history records