Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49f4…a7c9 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$428 (+8%) realized +$394 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%48W / 22L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$76
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$82
finance 28% +$153
world 17% +$105
sports 16% +$25
crypto 4% +$12
economics 2% +$11
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 71% 36% -9.1%
≤30d 40 +6.5% -3.7% 72% 42% -2.9%
≤90d 70 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 46% -2.7%
all 70 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 46% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 46% -2.7%
10% -12.5% 27% -12.0%
15% -20.9% 21% -20.5%
20% -28.7% 10% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$394
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses48 / 22
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)70 / 79
History coverage62d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 57¢ 88¢ $57 $88 +$32 (+55%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 82¢ $68 $82 +$15 (+22%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-3%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 25¢ 50¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+102%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 46¢ 50¢ $46 $50 +$3 (+8%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $43 $17 −$26 (-61%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $23 $10 −$12 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 23 $88 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 23 $80 −$32 -41%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $72 +$28 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $117 −$4 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +12%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 19 $91 +$8 +8%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $83 −$25 -30%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $44 +$3 +7%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $176 +$34 +20%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $35 +$15 +44%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 16 $153 +$12 +8%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $65 +$5 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $45 −$15 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $187 +$5 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $80 −$6 -8%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $83 +$7 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $50 +$31 +63%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $38 −$7 -18%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $32 +$11 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $24 −$6 -25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 08 $71 +$17 +24%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $38 +$39 +102%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $83 +$17 +21%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $91 +$9 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $82 +$13 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $162 +$24 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $182 +$65 +36%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 26 $47 −$29 -63%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $55 −$34 -62%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 21 $81 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 21 $29 −$7 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 21 $48 +$13 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $112 +$18 +16%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $17 +$15 +86%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $44 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $37 +$6 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristina Bucsa vs Qinwen Zheng May 07 $83 +$13 +15%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane May 07 $54 −$27 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 89¢ $88 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 48¢ $47 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $61 26h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 45¢ $23 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 57¢ $59 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $26 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $7 41h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 48¢ $15 47h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 48¢ $9 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $91 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 36¢ $6 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 79¢ $80 3d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $99 3d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $33 3d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 59¢ $58 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $83 4d
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $48 4d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $22 5d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $6 5d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $10 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.23 · official $527.24 (match) · 229 history records