Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49f8…4fe1 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$559 (+23%) realized +$559 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%37W / 71L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$533
14 days+$555
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$391
other 24% +$208
crypto 2% −$46
world 2% −$45
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +29.1% +16.8% 39% 37% +25.4%
≤30d 97 +15.4% +4.4% 37% 36% +15.8%
≤90d 97 +15.4% +4.4% 37% 36% +15.8%
all 108 +5.5% -4.6% 34% 33% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 33% +12.5%
10% -13.7% 33% +1.8%
15% -22.0% 32% -8.1%
20% -29.7% 32% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$11 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$559
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses37 / 71
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)108 / 121
History coverage328d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 +$20 +25%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $61 +$35 +57%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$46 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $35 +$24 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$22 +108%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$27 +90%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$3 -13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$68 +1326%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$46 +152%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$51 +167%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $147 +$126 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$37 +105%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$38 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs BUY 2¢ $10 51m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 53m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $25 53m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 54m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $33 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $36 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $36 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $35 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $35 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $59 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $42 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $29 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $29 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 20h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 20h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 40¢ $21 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $20 20h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 36¢ $20 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 33h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 9¢ $10 33h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway BUY 3¢ $5 39h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 39h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $30 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.66 · official $234.66 · 198 history records