Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fc…629e crypto 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$190 (-1%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%186W / 59L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$523
14 days−$523
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$382
sports 1% −$87
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.5% -13.6% 74% 51% -17.3%
≤30d 99 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 32% -11.4%
≤90d 154 -1.0% -10.4% 85% 27% -10.4%
all 245 -8.2% -16.9% 76% 24% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 24% -10.9%
10% -24.9% 11% -19.4%
15% -32.1% 5% -27.2%
20% -38.8% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$39 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses186 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage112d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$80 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $124 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $306 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$177 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $502 −$415 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $306 +$105 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $304 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $302 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $302 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $328 −$25 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 697 history records