Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fe…e817 crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$451 (+2%) realized +$451 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%106W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day88.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$342
7 days+$379
14 days+$379
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 24% -7.6%
≤30d 168 +18.4% +7.1% 63% 30% -8.1%
≤90d 168 +18.4% +7.1% 63% 30% -8.1%
all 168 +18.4% +7.1% 63% 30% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 30% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.1% 26% -16.9%
15% -12.5% 15% -24.9%
20% -21.1% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses106 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage14d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day88.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $134 +$85 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$163 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $159 +$91 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $354 +$146 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $160 +$68 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $229 +$87 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $264 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $189 −$127 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $380 +$650 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $599 −$119 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $235 −$100 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$41 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $331 −$131 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$27 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $224 +$72 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$30 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $206 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $414 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$16 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $278 −$68 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$34 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$29 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $89 +$24 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$63 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $233 −$108 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $217 −$37 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $218 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $134 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $221 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $58 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $46 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $159 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $178 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $176 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $229 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $290 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1370 history records