trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 50% | 50% | -11.2% |
| ≤30d | 22 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 41% | 41% | -11.8% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 41% | 41% | -11.8% |
| all | 22 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 41% | 41% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 41% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 27% | -20.3% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 23% | -28.0% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 9% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 14¢ | 12¢ | $54 | $48 | −$6 (-10%) |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 28¢ | $30 | $34 | +$4 (+15%) |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 22¢ | $33 | $32 | −$1 (-2%) |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 48¢ | 46¢ | $29 | $28 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | Jun 24 | $4 | +$3 | +67% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 24 | $33 | −$18 | -55% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $30 | −$4 | -12% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $10 | −$5 | -44% |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 22 | $11 | +$6 | +50% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 22 | $19 | +$4 | +18% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $53 | +$16 | +30% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 18 | $13 | −$5 | -38% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 17 | $6 | +$4 | +56% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$7 | -50% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | Jun 17 | $15 | +$7 | +47% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $9 | +$2 | +22% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $15 | −$6 | -41% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? | Jun 14 | $11 | −$1 | -11% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | Jun 14 | $11 | −$3 | -23% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | Jun 14 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4 | +$2 | +38% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | Jun 14 | $8 | −$2 | -26% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |