Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ff…3292 sports 58 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-9%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%37W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$161
14 days−$168
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$61
other 20% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -43.3% -48.7% 50% 17% -46.0%
≤30d 58 +9.7% -0.7% 64% 43% -18.1%
≤90d 58 +9.7% -0.7% 64% 43% -18.1%
all 58 +9.7% -0.7% 64% 43% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 43% -18.1%
10% -10.2% 28% -25.9%
15% -18.9% 17% -33.1%
20% -26.8% 12% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage12d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $2 +$1 +37%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $76 +$1 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $60 +$15 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
James Rodríguez: 3+ shots Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 +$8 +59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +29%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$25 +108%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 +$8 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$15 -72%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$7 +16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 +$3 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $80 +$11 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$80 +1572%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 60¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 60¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 43¢ $2 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $8 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $48 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $25 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $56 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $2 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 9¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $77 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $76 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $60 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records