Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a03…aedb other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-3%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$8
crypto 18% +$1
sports 11% +$2
politics 9% −$107
world 9% +$2
economics 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -2.4% -11.7% 97% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -11.9%
10% -20.1% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$108 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage235d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w May 25 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? May 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will Amazon dip to $152 in April? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? Apr 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $120? Apr 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Mar 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 08 $108 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $127 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 27 $108 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Feb 15 $107 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 23 $108 −$108 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$2.00 on the final day of trading of th Jan 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $150? Jan 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $30? Jan 13 $83 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 06 $105 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18? Dec 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Dec 19 $104 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $20 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Dec 01 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Nov 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 12 $104 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 08 $102 +$1 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? Nov 02 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $62 9d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $89 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $111 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $110 27d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $109 36d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $110 38d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 50d
Will Amazon dip to $152 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $109 69d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $120? BUY No 100¢ $6 79d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $120? BUY No 100¢ $72 80d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $109 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $107 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $2 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $109 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $109 98d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $36 105d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $72 105d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $108 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $61 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $2 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $92 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.52 · official $112.52 (match) · 91 history records