Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a06…6b1d crypto 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1800 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$676 (+1%) realized +$702 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%213W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1800.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1800 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 44% -6.6%
≤30d 424 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 44% -6.6%
≤90d 424 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 44% -6.6%
all 424 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 44% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1800.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 44% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -15.5%
15% -26.2% 43% -23.7%
20% -33.5% 40% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$93 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses213 / 211
Open positions2
Markets (closed)424 / 426
History coverage2d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1800.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 47¢ 36¢ $120 $90 −$30 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$133 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$34 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$26 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$40 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $150 +$38 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$133 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$86 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $180 −$56 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $150 +$169 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $240 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$59 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$59 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$89 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $180 +$73 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$64 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$68 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$62 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$98 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.33 · official $199.77 · 3068 history records