Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4a07…55d4 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,824 (-4%) realized −$1,808 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%75W / 143L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 177d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$5,332
other 3% +$149
world 1% −$125
sports 1% +$307
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 37% -45.6%
≤30d 58 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 36% -31.6%
≤90d 193 -16.7% -24.6% 30% 30% -29.2%
all 218 -4.4% -13.5% 34% 33% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -16.0%
10% -21.8% 33% -24.0%
15% -29.4% 31% -31.4%
20% -36.3% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$185 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$1,808
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses75 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)218 / 221
History coverage177d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 30¢ $33 $23 −$10 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$69 +271%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$44 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $321 −$207 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $113 +$118 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$54 +196%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$25 +121%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $291 −$281 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$320 +183%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$348 +340%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$242 +237%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $156 −$151 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $165 +$132 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $278 −$277 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $284 +$191 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$163 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $223 −$217 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $89 +$163 +183%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$54 +527%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$14 +103%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $753 −$748 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $383 −$381 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $262 −$262 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $504 +$756 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $34 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 72¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $106 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $207 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $179 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $112 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 41¢ $62 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $41 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.18 · official $87.56 (match) · 1083 history records