Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a07…526e crypto 733 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%306W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 36% +8.0%
≤30d 456 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 34% -12.5%
≤90d 733 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 41% -7.1%
all 733 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 41% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -16.0%
15% -31.0% 38% -24.1%
20% -37.7% 33% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses306 / 427
Open positions0
Markets (closed)733 / 733
History coverage42d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 733 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$8 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$12 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$35 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$20 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1697 history records