Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a07…4948
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$10 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$4
crypto 33% +$5
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 34m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 94¢ $6 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 78¢ $1 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 72¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+107.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +129.7% +107.8% 100% 80% +67.5%
≤30d 5 +129.7% +107.8% 100% 80% +67.5%
≤90d 5 +129.7% +107.8% 100% 80% +67.5%
all 5 +129.7% +107.8% 100% 80% +67.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +107.8% 80% +67.5%
10% +87.9% 60% +51.5%
15% +69.8% 60% +36.8%
20% +53.1% 60% +23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $6.96 (match) · 12 history records