Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a09…f868 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$474 (-2%) realized −$474 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%43W / 23L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$233
7 days−$1,671
14 days−$1,410
30 days−$1,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$283
other 17% −$184
finance 3% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 56% 56% -29.2%
≤30d 37 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 57% -23.2%
≤90d 47 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 57% -19.8%
all 66 +1.4% -8.2% 65% 55% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 55% -11.4%
10% -17.0% 45% -19.9%
15% -25.0% 23% -27.6%
20% -32.4% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$203 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses43 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage212d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $305 +$140 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $252 +$61 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $300 +$97 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $197 −$195 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $206 −$9 -4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $566 −$326 -58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $397 −$397 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $151 +$34 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $606 −$606 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $319 +$78 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $251 +$43 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $150 +$126 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $111 +$40 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $404 +$192 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $402 +$69 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $253 −$145 -57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $261 +$40 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $316 −$271 -86%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $499 −$499 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $151 +$39 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $353 +$161 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $263 +$134 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $400 +$109 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $286 +$136 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $231 +$56 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $151 +$132 +88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $116 −$62 -54%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $152 +$36 +24%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $88 −$22 -25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $62 +$16 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $188 −$48 -25%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$7 +24%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $89 +$26 +29%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $100 +$180 +180%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 19 $30 +$102 +340%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $196 +$136 +69%
Avalanche vs. Predators Apr 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Trace Esports (BO3) Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $48 +$83 +172%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $499 −$358 -72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $69 +$7 +10%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Dec 09 $350 −$281 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $445 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $252 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $396 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $300 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $197 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $197 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $206 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $8 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $334 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $231 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $232 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $185 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $151 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $397 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $397 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $319 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $251 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $150 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $111 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $606 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $596 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $404 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $471 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $182 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $402 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 26¢ $108 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $253 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $261 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records