Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a09…d852 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%47W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$4
politics 22% +$18
crypto 16% +$4
world 12% +$4
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 49 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -8.5%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses47 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage724d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? May 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? May 07 $119 +$1 +1%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 05 $167 +$1 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? Mar 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Feb 09 $49 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 05 $60 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $32 +$1 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 22 $38 $0 +1%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 31 $186 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by September 10? Sep 15 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +11%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? Feb 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $32 $0 +1%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 05 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 01 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22? Nov 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $34 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Oct 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 70-79 times? Sep 01 $95 $0 +0%
Trump posts 40-49 times on X? Aug 25 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 8 times this week? Aug 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $95 $0 +0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $25 $0 +0%
Was Eric Trump hacked? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
France train attack claimed by terror org? Aug 06 $16 $0 +2%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Aug 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Will $BTC reach 80k in July? Aug 04 $63 +$2 +3%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Jul 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 19 $118 +$17 +14%
pump.fun airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $26 $0 +0%
Zora airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 39d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 53d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? BUY No 99¢ $88 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? BUY No 99¢ $1 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? BUY No 99¢ $29 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 53d
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $38 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 100¢ $161 112d
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $60 140d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $38 179d
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $32 211d
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by September 10? BUY No 99¢ $22 288d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 97¢ $20 329d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $18 369d
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? BUY No 100¢ $18 410d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $118 436d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 463d
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $25 482d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $20 505d
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 505d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $28 515d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $32 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.39 · official $214.39 (match) · 111 history records