Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a0c…acd3 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$156 (-2%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$333
sports 35% +$176
world 6% +$11
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 27% -11.3%
≤30d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 27% -11.3%
≤90d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 27% -11.3%
all 33 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 27% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 27% -11.3%
10% -15.2% 24% -19.8%
15% -23.4% 18% -27.6%
20% -30.9% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$102 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $421 +$11 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $327 +$13 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $69 +$2 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $390 +$8 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $27 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $328 +$31 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $301 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $152 +$8 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $348 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $758 −$497 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $252 +$83 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $519 +$10 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$25 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,235 +$36 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $331 +$10 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $415 +$236 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $279 +$23 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $168 −$149 -89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $433 2m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 97¢ $382 23m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 97¢ $39 24m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $340 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $69 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $327 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $398 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $390 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 100¢ $360 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 91¢ $328 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $3 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $100 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $100 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $100 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $301 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $150 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $152 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $191 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 87¢ $351 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $348 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records