Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a0d…72d2
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$18
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage59d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 5 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-48%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? No 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 42¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? No 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs FURIA 49¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 19 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $14 −$8 -59%
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $4 +$9 +215%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $9 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$44
other 25% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 34m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $4 4h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 22h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $3 26h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 43¢ $3 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 41¢ $5 12d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tommy Paul 56¢ $6 23d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tommy Paul 57¢ $6 23d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tomas Etcheverry 72¢ $6 23d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 63¢ $6 23d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tommy Paul 39¢ $6 23d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tommy Paul 35¢ $5 24d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tomas Etcheverry 84¢ $5 24d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 66¢ $4 24d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tommy Paul 29¢ $4 24d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tommy Paul 64¢ $10 24d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $1 24d
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY No 25¢ $5 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $4 25d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 54¢ $5 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $7 28d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 50¢ $3 29d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $10 29d
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $12 58d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL FURIA 87¢ $13 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.8% -52.8% 33% 33% -35.6%
≤30d 10 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -48.5%
≤90d 14 -33.1% -39.5% 29% 29% -43.6%
all 14 -33.1% -39.5% 29% 29% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 29% -43.6%
10% -45.3% 29% -49.0%
15% -50.5% 29% -53.9%
20% -55.4% 21% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.03 · official $18.03 (match) · 36 history records