Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4A 0x4a12…e633 sports 688 markets active 2h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,046 (-4%) realized −$1,023 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%283W / 398L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$355
14 days+$986
30 days+$1,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,020
other 8% −$53
economics 2% −$41
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$19
tech 0% +$30
culture 0% −$50
politics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.8% -13.0% 48% 44% +4.2%
≤30d 177 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 42% +15.7%
≤90d 309 +4.2% -5.7% 44% 42% -4.0%
all 681 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -13.0%
10% -19.4% 40% -21.3%
15% -27.2% 39% -28.9%
20% -34.3% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$41 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$1,023
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses283 / 398
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions4
Markets (closed)681 / 688
History coverage445d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 68¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $38 $25 −$13 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 27 $20 +$17 +84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $51 +$40 +79%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$95 +185%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $38 −$37 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $51 +$53 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$141 +344%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $101 +$95 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$65 +129%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $203 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $84 +$116 +138%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $60 +$40 +67%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $100 +$100 +100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$74 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$79 +154%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $51 +$75 +147%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 53¢ $20 9h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $51 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 24h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $100 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $100 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 48¢ $51 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 35¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.92 · official $263.90 (match) · 1361 history records