Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a14…045c sports 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,986 (+9%) realized +$6,447 · open −$461
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%168W / 237L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$557
14 days+$439
30 days+$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$2,984
other 22% +$2,232
politics 5% +$195
world 3% −$484
tech 3% +$388
economics 2% +$18
finance 1% −$126
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +105.9% +86.3% 49% 43% +42.8%
≤30d 46 +66.0% +50.2% 41% 37% +11.6%
≤90d 178 +6.0% -4.1% 37% 32% -9.3%
all 405 +8.7% -1.7% 41% 38% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 38% -1.0%
10% -11.1% 35% -10.4%
15% -19.7% 32% -19.1%
20% -27.5% 30% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$48 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$1,397
Realized+$6,447
Unrealized−$461
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses168 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions13
Markets (closed)405 / 421
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $603 $444 −$159 (-26%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $413 $237 −$176 (-43%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 73¢ 68¢ $215 $201 −$14 (-7%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $124 $164 +$40 (+32%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $254 $131 −$124 (-49%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $69 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 54¢ 58¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+18%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-7%)
Will LNG Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $46 $10 −$36 (-77%)
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$7 -6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$83 +488%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 −$92 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$45 +874%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$30 +165%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -31%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$32 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $75 +$44 +60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$140 +1444%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $43 +$57 +133%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $93 −$30 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$43 +596%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$24 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 +$105 +527%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 −$6 -13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? May 21 $62 +$76 +123%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 21 $1,520 +$282 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 18 $19 +$21 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 18 $22 +$28 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $45 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $45 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $100 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $107 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $68 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $18 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 20¢ $36 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $75 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $14 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 33¢ $102 3d
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 5¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,396.61 · official $1,392.27 (match) · 3500 history records