Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4A 0x4a15…bdbd sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-3%) realized −$480 · open +$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$345
14 days+$161
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$673
other 14% −$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.6% +15.4% 67% 67% +17.4%
≤30d 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -13.3%
all 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 50% -13.3%
10% -28.8% 50% -21.6%
15% -35.6% 50% -29.1%
20% -42.0% 33% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$279 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$480
Unrealized+$411
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage24d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Osaka 59¢ 100¢ $582 $993 +$411 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $344 −$339 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $557 +$384 +69%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $263 +$300 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $264 −$260 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $193 +$76 +40%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $241 −$238 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Osaka 57¢ $34 1h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Osaka 60¢ $308 1h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Osaka 57¢ $12 1h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Osaka 57¢ $235 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $344 11h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $19 14h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $121 14h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $27 14h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $128 14h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $137 14h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $125 14h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 17h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $257 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $258 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $270 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $8 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $185 8d
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 24d
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 55¢ $235 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.97 · official $992.97 (match) · 23 history records