Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a18…a5ef other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$16
politics 31% −$11
sports 5% −$21
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.5% -12.7% 3% 2% -9.8%
all 117 -3.1% -12.4% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage115d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $432 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $479 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $251 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $441 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $372 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $430 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $390 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $488 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $31 25h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $20 25h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 47h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 47h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.00 · official $24.00 (match) · 341 history records