Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a1a…df93 other 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 213L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 22% −$17
politics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$3
world 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$4
tech 2% +$7
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $183 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $248 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $474 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $460 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 13m
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 37m
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 14h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 16h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 20h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $35 29h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $35 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 34h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 37h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 38h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $7 43h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 44h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.94 · official $56.94 (match) · 1297 history records