Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a1b…4c1f other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,333 (+1%) realized +$1,333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,362per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$33
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,379
politics 43% −$100
economics 5% −$7
world 3% −$15
sports 3% −$9
crypto 0% +$32
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +4.5% -5.5% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 120 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 8% -8.8%
all 124 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -8.8%
10% -18.4% 7% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 6% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,633) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$5 · ×27.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized+$1,333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,362
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $444 $444 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $348 $348 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,871 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $424 +$2 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,011 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,214 −$4 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,133 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,935 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,756 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,217 −$3 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $62 +$42 +67%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $522 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,120 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,650 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,725 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,012 −$2 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $86 +$37 +44%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $47 +$46 +97%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $4,210 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $104 +$33 +32%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $3,048 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $3,003 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $444 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 15h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $467 18h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $665 20h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $666 24h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 42h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $761 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $717 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $718 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $797 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $798 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $570 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $571 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $610 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $611 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $603 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $604 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $812 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $813 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $348 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $893 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $388 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $821 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $388 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $823 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.58 · official $791.58 (match) · 419 history records