Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a1c…9867 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$24,016 (-15%) realized −$24,935 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%35W / 14L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,339per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$11,991
14 days−$5,748
30 days−$24,935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$36,407
crypto 25% −$6,280
sports 15% +$17,752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +134.1% +111.8% 73% 73% +8.5%
≤30d 49 +42.3% +28.7% 71% 57% -23.4%
≤90d 49 +42.3% +28.7% 71% 57% -23.4%
all 49 +42.3% +28.7% 71% 57% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.7% 57% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here +16.4% 47% -30.7%
15% +5.2% 37% -37.4%
20% -5.1% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,219 vs −$4,829 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,935
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses35 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3,339
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $20,505 $0 −$20,505 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $22,643 $0 −$22,643 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Cloud9 4¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 83¢ 0¢ $10,000 $0 −$10,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Farés Ziam 75¢ 0¢ $2,632 $0 −$2,632 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,206 +$3,332 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $651 +$873 +134%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10,051 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$662 +1288%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $1,526 +$2,030 +133%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12,337 +$3,780 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,065 +$2,278 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8,392 +$3,658 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12,754 +$5,541 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $607 +$459 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,220 +$1,558 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $35 −$29 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $114 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$121 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $253 +$94 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $78 +$122 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,319 +$1,230 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$27 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1,337 +$1,126 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $2,652 −$2,632 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20,608 −$20,505 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $17,868 +$638 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $1,004 +$57 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $1,121 +$386 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $309 +$217 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $305 +$98 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $303 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $11,030 −$11,030 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16,378 +$14,094 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23,058 −$22,643 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $2,005 +$52 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $7,538 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $4,206 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $10,051 25h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 3¢ $51 26h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 5¢ $51 26h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 13¢ $13 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $651 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $714 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 7¢ $51 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 28h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $3,556 29h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 35¢ $510 29h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 46¢ $1,016 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $12,337 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $12,343 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $10,065 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $8,392 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $18,295 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $12,754 3d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 36¢ $102 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $505 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 18¢ $102 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 47¢ $508 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 47¢ $406 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Dplus KIA 53¢ $3 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 47¢ $102 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Dplus KIA 53¢ $92 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 55¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records