Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a1d…0704 crypto 608 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,960 (+1%) realized +$112,153 · open −$79,193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%30W / 574L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,401per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$79,191
other 15% +$15,130
crypto 9% −$1,158
world 9% +$705
economics 9% −$232,980
sports 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +63.5% +48.0% 100% 75% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +30.5% +18.1% 88% 38% -9.2%
all 604 -71.2% -74.0% 5% 4% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.0% 4% -27.1%
10% -76.5% 4% -34.1%
15% ← realistic here -78.7% 4% -40.4%
20% -80.8% 3% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -94% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$665 vs −$415 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$237,226
Realized+$112,153
Unrealized−$79,193
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses30 / 574
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)604 / 608
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$4,401
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $118,372 $197,563 +$79,191 (+67%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $118,372 $39,181 −$79,191 (-67%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $484 $483 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $63 +$59 +93%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $235,962 +$947 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $62 +$75 +122%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $234,355 +$705 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $189,132 +$837 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 28 $2,955 +$12 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 28 $900 −$100 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 07 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$15 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 07 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $232,980 −$232,980 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 01 $218,596 +$14,296 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $350 +$206 +59%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $497 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw BUY 4¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $63 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61,019 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,241 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,490 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,990 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,735 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6,225 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,724 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94,376 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18,745 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17,430 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6,225 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12,450 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,441 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,250 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $67 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 19d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $234,216 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237,226.42 · official $237,256.42 (match) · 3500 history records