Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a28…d58b other 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$883 (-6%) realized −$920 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%81W / 129L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$139
14 days−$1,332
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$511
crypto 25% +$475
politics 23% −$337
other 17% −$242
weather 5% −$259
tech 3% +$15
sports 1% −$93
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.0% -33.0% 17% 17% -19.4%
≤30d 141 -24.3% -31.5% 30% 8% -12.2%
≤90d 210 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 17% -15.7%
all 210 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 17% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 17% -15.7%
10% -28.8% 13% -23.8%
15% -35.6% 11% -31.1%
20% -41.9% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized−$920
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses81 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)210 / 221
History coverage74d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $99 $143 +$43 (+44%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 48¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 38¢ 34¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $70 $59 −$11 (-16%)
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $16 $25 +$8 (+50%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No 70¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$61 -30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $200 −$47 -23%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 16 $600 −$24 -4%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 15 $165 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $74 −$30 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $50 −$11 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$33 -16%
Revolut IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $58 −$35 -61%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $153 −$6 -4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $100 −$64 -64%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 13 $102 −$81 -80%
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $31 −$14 -44%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $119 −$70 -59%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $606 −$68 -11%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 13 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 13 $397 −$57 -14%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $200 −$100 -50%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$3 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $144 +$89 +62%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o Jun 12 $31 −$24 -76%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$13 -42%
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $74 −$11 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 5? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 9? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 9? Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 11 $86 −$22 -26%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 9? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 8? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 7? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $2 19m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $43 19m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $57 19m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $7 20m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $10 20m
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $3 31m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $4 31m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $1 33m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $5 37m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $2 37m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $5 37m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 24¢ $5 37m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $7 37m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $42 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $42 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $42 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $42 2h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $10 2h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.44 · official $743.28 (match) · 858 history records