Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4A 0x4a2a…2e15 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$267 (+26%) realized +$274 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$252per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+32.1%	+19.5%	100%	100%	+24.0%
≤30d	2	+32.1%	+19.5%	100%	100%	+24.0%
≤90d	2	+32.1%	+19.5%	100%	100%	+24.0%
all	2	+32.1%	+19.5%	100%	100%	+24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.5%	100%	+24.0%
10%	+8.1%	50%	+12.1%
15%	-2.4%	50%	+1.3%
20%	-12.0%	0%	-8.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$131 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$293

Realized+$274

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$252

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	52¢	52¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	54¢	52¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$505	+$220	+44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	+$41	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$101	1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	52¢	$200	17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	89¢	$243	17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	73¢	$202	18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$505	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.45 · official $293.45 (match) · 6 history records