Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a2b…af20
world · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$132,128 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131,649 · open −$2,662
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$84,440
Realized−$131,649
Unrealized−$2,662
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses37 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions95
Markets (closed)255 / 153
Avg bet$2,136
Trades / day157.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 95 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135,634
7 days−$138,315
14 days−$124,161
30 days−$131,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $6,560 $7,692 +$1,132 (+17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $5,437 $6,501 +$1,065 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $4,115 $6,160 +$2,045 (+50%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $3,984 $4,727 +$743 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3,200 $3,600 +$400 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 33¢ 26¢ $4,580 $3,570 −$1,010 (-22%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $2,832 $3,220 +$388 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $1,860 $2,370 +$510 (+27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 40¢ 72¢ $1,210 $2,172 +$962 (+80%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1,872 $2,057 +$185 (+10%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,942 $1,967 +$25 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 30¢ $2,593 $1,770 −$823 (-32%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 18¢ $3,660 $1,750 −$1,910 (-52%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 30¢ 80¢ $600 $1,610 +$1,010 (+168%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 17¢ 39¢ $690 $1,564 +$874 (+127%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 17¢ 10¢ $2,460 $1,554 −$906 (-37%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1,440 $1,410 −$30 (-2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $900 $1,352 +$452 (+50%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 65¢ $860 $1,300 +$440 (+51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 62¢ $1,370 $1,250 −$120 (-9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $960 $1,240 +$280 (+29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 60¢ $1,160 $1,190 +$30 (+3%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 56¢ 56¢ $1,120 $1,110 −$10 (-1%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 69¢ $210 $1,035 +$825 (+393%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 53¢ 64¢ $846 $1,032 +$186 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 12 $333 −$408 -122%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $591 −$591 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $574 −$574 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6,181 −$7,097 -115%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 12 $403 −$273 -68%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $1,993 −$1,808 -91%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? Jun 12 $894 −$894 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,883 −$1,322 -46%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? Jun 12 $248 −$248 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $552 +$1,313 +238%
Will FalleN retire by June 1? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Monster" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $3,140 −$3,140 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $4,385 −$3,423 -78%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 12 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $6,357 −$6,357 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Jun 12 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,691 −$2,601 -97%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 12 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Jun 12 $1,320 −$1,919 -145%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $907 −$636 -70%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$134 -82%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $657 −$657 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? Jun 12 $348 −$453 -130%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $2,137 −$2,137 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Jun 12 $3,470 −$3,121 -90%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Jun 12 $384 −$384 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 12 $250 −$120 -48%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 12 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$23,496
crypto 30% +$34,196
politics 14% −$1,215
other 11% −$2,141
tech 4% −$2,220
finance 2% +$995
culture 1% −$1,350
sports 0% −$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $0 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $1 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $8 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $1 11m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $27 17m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $43 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 33m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $268 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $160 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $118 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $11 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $17 59m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $322 59m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $245 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $840 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $606 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $225 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $264 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $536 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $203 12h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $159 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $851 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -74.5% -77.0% 10% 9% -73.3%
≤30d 255 -57.0% -61.1% 15% 13% -39.1%
≤90d 255 -57.0% -61.1% 15% 13% -39.1%
all 255 -57.0% -61.1% 15% 13% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.1% 13% -39.1%
10% -64.8% 11% -45.0%
15% ← realistic here -68.2% 9% -50.3%
20% -71.3% 9% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,439.92 · official $84,201.25 (match) · 3500 history records