Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a2f…5b3d
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$1
other 8% $0
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 38% -15.9%
≤30d 13 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 38% -15.9%
≤90d 13 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 38% -15.9%
all 13 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 38% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 38% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -24.0%
15% -30.9% 31% -31.3%
20% -37.6% 31% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.95 (match) · 35 history records