Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a30…4165 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 20% +$34
politics 18% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 47% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.9%
all 41 +3.4% -6.5% 41% 7% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 7% -6.5%
10% -15.4% 5% -15.4%
15% -23.6% 2% -23.6%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.44 per $1 lost it wins $7.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage401d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $93 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Joao Almeida win the Tour de France 2025? Aug 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $11 +$34 +300%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 04 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $33 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $33 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $2 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $28 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $5 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $25 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $27 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.34 · official $29.16 (match) · 113 history records