Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4a30…a2f4 sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$37 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%101W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$45
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$138
other 49% −$159
crypto 1% +$13
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 29% -9.1%
≤30d 122 -1.0% -10.5% 83% 25% -9.9%
≤90d 122 -1.0% -10.5% 83% 25% -9.9%
all 122 -1.0% -10.5% 83% 25% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 25% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 7% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$33 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,405
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses101 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage14d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $1,205 $1,235 +$30 (+3%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 100¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $50 +$1 +3%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $79 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $300 +$12 +4%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $27 +$3 +11%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $632 +$26 +4%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $501 +$43 +9%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $600 +$7 +1%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +10%
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $988 +$25 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $6 +$1 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $32 +$3 +11%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $144 −$144 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $200 +$7 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $266 +$8 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $264 +$3 +1%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $35 +$1 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 +$2 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 +$4 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $177 +$14 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $59 +$5 +8%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $9 +$1 +17%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $30 +$2 +5%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $64 −$8 -13%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $22 +$4 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $114 +$3 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 $0 +5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $149 +$4 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $60 +$1 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $257 +$10 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $150 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $40 27m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 36m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 39m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $300 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $79 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $36 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $39 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $38 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $12 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $379 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $195 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $156 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $70 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $500 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $294 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $288 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $600 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $501 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,404.60 · official $1,404.60 (match) · 453 history records