Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4A 0x4a31…dc23 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$263 (-20%) realized −$263 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$17

7 days−$117

14 days−$271

30 days−$271

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-36.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-14.7%	-22.8%	58%	50%	-24.8%
≤30d	22	-30.0%	-36.7%	50%	45%	-28.1%
≤90d	22	-30.0%	-36.7%	50%	45%	-28.1%
all	22	-30.0%	-36.7%	50%	45%	-28.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.7%	45%	-28.1%
10%	-42.7%	27%	-34.9%
15%	-48.3%	23%	-41.2%
20%	-53.4%	18%	-47.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$49 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$263

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage14d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$45	+89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$50	+$4	+7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$50	+$9	+19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 14	$52	−$43	-83%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 14	$51	+$40	+78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$90	−$88	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$50	+$21	+41%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$100	+$17	+17%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 08	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 08	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw?	Jun 05	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 05	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 05	$59	+$10	+17%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 04	$47	+$12	+26%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02?	Jun 03	$101	+$57	+57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?	Jun 02	$164	+$26	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$96	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$54	4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	92¢	$50	4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$60	7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	1¢	$9	16h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$91	16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	24¢	$90	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	5¢	$52	5d
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$118	6d
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08?	BUY Yes	85¢	$100	6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	7d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	7d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08?	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	7d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	60¢	$51	8d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	10d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	85¢	$59	10d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03?	SELL Yes	96¢	$60	11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03?	BUY Yes	76¢	$47	11d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02?	SELL Yes	100¢	$159	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records