Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4a36…e42b crypto 625 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,085 (+6%) realized +$1,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate83%517W / 108L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$69
14 days−$13
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$157
other 14% +$636
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 21% -8.3%
≤30d 548 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 31% -9.4%
≤90d 625 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 32% -5.7%
all 625 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 32% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 32% -5.7%
10% -16.7% 12% -14.7%
15% -24.8% 4% -22.9%
20% -32.1% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses517 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)625 / 625
History coverage75d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 625 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $321 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $300 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1411 history records