Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a38…bfe8
crypto · 208 markets active 281d ago
0.0score
−$78,849 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78,849 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$78,849
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses165 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)370 / 208
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4,447
Trades / day256.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 370 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242,402
7 days−$242,402
14 days−$242,402
30 days−$242,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 17 at 5PM ET? No 8¢ 0¢ $766 $0 −$766 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 August 4–10? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1,927 $0 −$1,927 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 2 at 4AM ET? No 3¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on August 11 at 5PM ET? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3,660 $0 −$3,660 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $5100 August 11–17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $722 $0 −$722 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $735 $0 −$735 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $208 on September 3 at 12PM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $202 on August 29 at 4PM ET? No 26¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $204 on August 31 at 8AM ET? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5PM ET? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $113K on August 22 at 4PM ET? No 41¢ 0¢ $3,036 $0 −$3,036 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 11 at 5PM ET? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 10 at 5PM ET? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5,111 $0 −$5,111 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4400 July 28–August 3? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $476 $0 −$476 (-100%)
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1,188 $0 −$1,188 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4,158 $0 −$4,158 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $208 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 3 at 5PM ET? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3,514 $0 −$3,514 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 29 at 5PM ET? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2,276 $0 −$2,276 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 28 at 5PM ET? No 69¢ 0¢ $31,122 $0 −$31,122 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2,714 $0 −$2,714 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 28 at 5PM ET? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $696 $0 −$696 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 17 at 5 Jun 12 $766 −$627 -82%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Jun 12 $900 −$870 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 August 4–10? Jun 12 $1,927 −$1,922 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on August 11 at 5 Jun 12 $3,660 +$459 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $5100 August 11–17? Jun 12 $722 −$130 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Jun 12 $735 −$758 -103%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Jun 12 $16 +$46 +287%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5P Jun 12 $100 +$1,427 +1426%
Bitcoin above $113K on August 22 at 4PM ET? Jun 12 $3,036 −$3,349 -110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 11 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $1 +$97 +9472%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 10 at 5PM ET Jun 12 $5,111 −$607 -12%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 July 28–August 3? Jun 12 $476 −$429 -90%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jun 12 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $4,158 −$3,970 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 3 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $3,514 −$2,631 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 29 at 5PM Jun 12 $2,276 −$1,530 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 28 at 5PM Jun 12 $31,122 −$34,741 -112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 28 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $696 +$209 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 8 at 5P Jun 12 $1,050 +$3,597 +342%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 29 at 5PM Jun 12 $12,324 −$13,989 -114%
Bitcoin above $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Jun 12 $75 −$76 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 11 at 5 Jun 12 $13 +$26 +200%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 July 21–27? Jun 12 $719 −$719 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 August 11–17? Jun 12 $411 +$6,367 +1551%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 6 at 5P Jun 12 $1,637 +$1,173 +72%
Will Ethereum dip to $3900 August 11–17? Jun 12 $791 +$155 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $121K and $122K on August 12 at 5 Jun 12 $318 +$532 +168%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 August 18–24? Jun 12 $585 −$1,918 -328%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on August 17 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $50 +$559 +1118%
Will Ethereum dip to $3700 August 11–17? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on August 17 at 5 Jun 12 $1,912 +$11,329 +593%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jun 12 $3,574 +$19,513 +546%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 July 28–August 3? Jun 12 $7 +$4,292 +65344%
Will Ethereum dip to $3500 August 4–10? Jun 12 $2,879 −$3,077 -107%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Jun 12 $1,885 −$3,716 -197%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 2 at 5P Jun 12 $387 −$241 -62%
Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31? Jun 12 $97 +$2,116 +2180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114K on August 2 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $7,000 −$7,081 -101%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August? Jun 12 $393 +$3,986 +1013%
Bitcoin above $110K on August 29? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $579 −$572 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 4 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $4,792 −$5,974 -125%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jun 12 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 4–10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $1,332 −$1,586 -119%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on August 2 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $322 −$228 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on August 13 at 5 Jun 12 $579 +$1,162 +201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 31 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $3,173 −$4,252 -134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$163,553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana above $180 on September 10? SELL Yes 86¢ $981 280d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $682 280d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $345 280d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? SELL Yes 6¢ $522 280d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September? SELL No 33¢ $1,490 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? SELL No 98¢ $696 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? SELL Yes 8¢ $981 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? SELL Yes 13¢ $912 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? SELL Yes 18¢ $820 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? SELL No 67¢ $2,213 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? SELL No 51¢ $3,996 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September? SELL No 13¢ $139 280d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? SELL No 17¢ $451 280d
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September? SELL No 27¢ $269 280d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,219 280d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,957 280d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? SELL Yes 28¢ $1,359 280d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? SELL Yes 20¢ $3,061 280d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,271 280d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 26¢ $1,560 280d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $2,898 280d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $6,992 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $10,681 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $15,996 280d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $25 280d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4,255 280d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $4,969 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+113.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +203.6% +174.7% 30% 30% -61.8%
≤30d 161 +203.6% +174.7% 30% 30% -61.8%
≤90d 161 +203.6% +174.7% 30% 30% -61.8%
all 370 +136.0% +113.5% 45% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover256.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +113.5% 36% -17.5%
10% +93.1% 30% -25.4%
15% ← realistic here +74.4% 25% -32.6%
20% +57.3% 22% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records