Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a3a…2a90 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-13%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%44W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$12
sports 18% −$85
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +33.2% +20.5% 52% 52% +17.0%
≤30d 21 +33.2% +20.5% 52% 52% +17.0%
≤90d 21 +33.2% +20.5% 52% 52% +17.0%
all 99 +7.0% -3.2% 44% 40% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 40% -21.8%
10% -12.4% 33% -29.3%
15% -20.9% 33% -36.2%
20% -28.7% 31% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses44 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage237d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$10 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 12 $5 +$4 +80%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 12 $26 −$23 -90%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 12 $31 −$31 -99%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 07 $5 +$18 +363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3PM ET Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 1AM ET Dec 20 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 20 $10 +$9 +94%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5 Dec 20 $15 −$3 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 19 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 19 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 19 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records