Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4a3b…2eb3 weather 605 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,809 (-3%) realized −$1,904 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%370W / 226L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$3,151
weather 30% −$425
other 21% −$2,560
world 9% +$279
politics 3% −$269
tech 0% +$34
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.4% -18.9% 71% 57% +2.3%
≤30d 44 +46.6% +32.7% 57% 52% +1.1%
≤90d 261 +4.7% -5.3% 61% 55% -2.8%
all 596 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 41% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 41% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 36% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 28% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$58 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$6,089
Realized−$1,904
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses370 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions9
Markets (closed)596 / 605
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $1,210 $1,417 +$207 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $950 $1,038 +$88 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No 59¢ 60¢ $938 $958 +$20 (+2%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1,000 $833 −$167 (-17%)
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $471 $400 −$71 (-15%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $282 $304 +$22 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $137 $141 +$4 (+3%)
Will Nick Kurtz win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $151 +$52 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $603 +$111 +18%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $1,807 +$377 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,203 +$101 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,037 +$473 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $340 −$332 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 +$331 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $232 −$227 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $57 −$55 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $252 +$77 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $93 +$33 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,536 −$1,536 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $504 +$1,733 +344%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 +$2,049 +2048%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? Jun 11 $0 $0 -3%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +77%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $101 −$1 -1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $351 −$131 -38%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $807 +$753 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $202 +$84 +42%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 03 $998 −$998 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $343 +$144 +42%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $56 +$50 +90%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 30 $136 +$14 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $101 +$29 +29%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 29 $640 +$360 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $50 +$15 +31%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $603 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,203 5d
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY No 58¢ $14 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $340 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 5d
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY No 58¢ $3 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY No 58¢ $12 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 6d
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $102 6d
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY No 58¢ $58 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,088.77 · official $6,150.41 · 3500 history records