Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a3e…c46f
crypto · 325 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$495 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$495 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$319
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses139 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)323 / 325
Avg bet$79
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 323 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days+$162
14 days−$2,089
30 days−$2,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 59¢ 60¢ $314 $318 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $317 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $561 −$47 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$31 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $107 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $120 −$51 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $136 −$134 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $304 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $443 −$19 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $126 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $433 −$42 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $251 +$8 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $132 −$122 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$20 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $175 +$42 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $463 −$107 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $310 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$2,367
sports 7% +$440
other 5% +$1,594
world 1% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $262 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $53 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $53 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 37% -6.5%
≤30d 322 -22.2% -29.7% 43% 34% -18.4%
≤90d 323 -21.8% -29.2% 43% 34% -10.5%
all 323 -21.8% -29.2% 43% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 34% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 27% -19.1%
15% -42.2% 21% -26.9%
20% -47.8% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.51 · official $318.51 (match) · 1969 history records