Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a3f…4333 sports 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,982 (-3%) realized −$6,983 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%327W / 343L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Fees−$2,845est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,370
7 days+$2,127
14 days−$2,223
30 days−$8,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$7,140
other 11% −$444
world 2% −$903
crypto 1% −$42
finance 1% +$201
tech 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +6.2% -3.9% 57% 45% -5.1%
≤30d 670 -4.7% -13.7% 49% 45% -13.1%
≤90d 670 -4.7% -13.7% 49% 45% -13.1%
all 670 -4.7% -13.7% 49% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 45% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 42% -21.4%
15% -29.5% 38% -29.0%
20% -36.4% 33% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$307 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2,260
Realized−$6,983
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses327 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,845
Open positions10
Markets (closed)670 / 680
History coverage26d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 47¢ $531 $517 −$14 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 37¢ 45¢ $300 $365 +$65 (+22%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $350 $332 −$18 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 27¢ 26¢ $204 $189 −$15 (-7%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 73¢ 55¢ $58 $44 −$15 (-25%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 77¢ 73¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 27¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$81 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $410 +$179 +44%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $398 +$5 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $411 −$408 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $363 +$637 +175%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $231 +$283 +122%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $411 −$408 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $354 +$168 +47%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $415 −$408 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $425 −$420 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $409 +$672 +164%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$203 -99%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 17 $403 +$37 +9%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $143 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $292 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $267 +$19 +7%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $264 +$35 +13%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $407 +$393 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $126 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $122 +$5 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $400 +$626 +156%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $188 −$187 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $427 +$549 +129%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $7 +$8 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$203 -99%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $476 +$1,429 +300%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $446 −$436 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$222 +109%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$45 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$322 +157%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$203 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $352 +$3 +1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 +$139 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $128 +$181 +142%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 −$103 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $91 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $153 +$11 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 −$199 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $355 +$259 +73%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $179 +$86 +48%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $188 +$436 +232%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 +$11 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $100 59m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $106 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $102 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $205 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $102 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $205 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $204 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $207 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $200 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $198 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $11 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $169 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $183 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $12 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $3 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $54 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $3 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $119 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $207 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $104 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $101 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $101 14h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Shapovalov 49¢ $415 14h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 21¢ $210 14h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 21¢ $215 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,259.51 · official $2,259.51 (match) · 2543 history records