trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $2,092 | $2,242 | +$149 (+7%) |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $406 | $409 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $80 | $87 | +$7 (+8%) |
| Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $39 | $61 | +$21 (+54%) |
| Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $28 | $30 | +$2 (+8%) |
| Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $21 | $24 | +$3 (+15%) |
| Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $7 | +$1 (+8%) |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+24%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$4 | +58% |
| Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $41 | +$22 | +54% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $995 | +$69 | +7% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $21 | +$8 | +41% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 06 | $56 | +$72 | +128% |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 06 | $379 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 06 | $88 | +$283 | +321% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 06 | $2 | −$1 | -56% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 06 | $110 | +$180 | +163% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +55.7% | +40.9% | 100% | 100% | +39.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +28.9% | +16.6% | 100% | 67% | -1.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +66.2% | +50.4% | 82% | 64% | +23.6% |
| all | 11 | +66.2% | +50.4% | 82% | 64% | +23.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +50.4% | 64% | +23.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +36.0% | 55% | +11.8% |
| 15% | +22.9% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 20% | +10.8% | 45% | -8.9% |