Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
4A 0x4a44…d5a5 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,707 (+39%) realized +$4,708 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$5,170
other 13% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +31.8% +19.2% 63% 61% +27.7%
≤30d 38 +31.8% +19.2% 63% 61% +27.7%
≤90d 38 +31.8% +19.2% 63% 61% +27.7%
all 38 +31.8% +19.2% 63% 61% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 61% +27.7%
10% +7.8% 55% +15.5%
15% -2.6% 50% +4.3%
20% -12.1% 42% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$140 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$4,708
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $568 +$148 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $450 +$117 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $372 +$79 +21%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$172 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $104 −$76 -73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 +$123 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$78 +78%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $663 +$95 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $403 +$260 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$198 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $413 −$413 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $283 +$358 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $105 +$179 +170%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $290 −$279 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$240 +473%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $200 −$149 -75%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $106 +$277 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $128 −$122 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,408 +$1,719 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,137 +$1,271 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $760 +$377 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $557 +$202 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $520 +$38 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $240 +$279 +116%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $100 −$59 -59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$119 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$210 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$159 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 +$179 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $716 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $566 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $567 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $450 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $450 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $372 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $371 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $200 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $128 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $100 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $2 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $98 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $759 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $663 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $663 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $402 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $204 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $641 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $283 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $284 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $105 47h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $411 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 88 history records