Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4A 0x4a44…8985 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,072 (+36%) realized +$15,111 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$759per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,993
7 days+$12,993
14 days+$12,993
30 days+$12,993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$11,817
sports 28% +$9,292
world 1% −$554
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +293.7% +256.2% 100% 100% +291.1%
≤30d 4 +293.7% +256.2% 100% 100% +291.1%
≤90d 54 +20.1% +8.6% 54% 52% +37.4%
all 54 +20.1% +8.6% 54% 52% +37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 52% +37.4%
10% -1.8% 44% +24.2%
15% -11.2% 41% +12.2%
20% -19.9% 31% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$994) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,003 vs −$339 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,824
Realized+$15,111
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage70d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1,863 $1,824 −$39 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,555 +$5,350 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $262 +$593 +226%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,466 +$5,694 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $628 +$1,356 +216%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 20 $433 +$84 +20%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $212 −$208 -98%
Will Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? May 19 $593 −$581 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $915 −$896 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $833 +$100 +12%
Will CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? May 18 $568 +$1,293 +228%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $169 +$400 +237%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,394 −$1,385 -99%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 16 $408 +$1,333 +327%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? May 16 $463 −$452 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 16 $544 −$532 -98%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $899 +$448 +50%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,005 −$994 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $563 −$554 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $800 +$417 +52%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $2,424 +$350 +14%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $2,500 +$894 +36%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1,765 +$1,237 +70%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1,662 +$828 +50%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 22 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Apr 21 $586 −$586 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? Apr 21 $2,072 +$843 +41%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 21 $23 +$31 +134%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Apr 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Apr 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 21 $166 −$166 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $1,680 +$1,262 +75%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $2,720 +$923 +34%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $2,942 +$1,744 +59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $3,170 +$817 +26%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,321 +$2,120 +160%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Apr 17 $165 +$391 +237%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $79 +$86 +109%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $64 +$126 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,905 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $257 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,555 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $628 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $783 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $683 8h
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $517 32d
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $212 33d
Will Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $593 33d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $915 33d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $833 34d
Will CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $568 35d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $568 35d
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $433 35d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $169 35d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 35d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 10¢ $103 35d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 14¢ $154 35d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 80¢ $1,394 35d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $463 36d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 36d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $544 36d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $408 36d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 44d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? BUY No 63¢ $1,005 44d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? BUY No 66¢ $899 44d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? BUY No 43¢ $563 44d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? SELL No 100¢ $1,217 58d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? SELL No 100¢ $2,774 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,824.19 · official $1,824.19 (match) · 122 history records