Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a45…3fcb
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$23 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 4 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 42¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$33
sports 20% +$5
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 56m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 56m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 57m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 57m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $13 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $6 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $38 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +62.3% +46.9% 71% 71% -18.6%
≤30d 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
≤90d 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
all 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 62% -27.5%
10% +16.2% 62% -34.5%
15% +5.0% 62% -40.8%
20% -5.3% 50% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.54 · official $19.54 (match) · 19 history records