Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a54…e1dd
world · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$994 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$978 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$160
Realized−$978
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions36
Markets (closed)39 / 75
History coverage47d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 36 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$560
7 days−$978
14 days−$978
30 days−$978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 77¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 67¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 51¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 28¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 42¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? No 21¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 48¢ 21¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 68¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
UK Recession in 2026? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 64¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $320 −$196 -61%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,777 −$307 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $41 −$28 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $381 −$337 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +21%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $25 −$21 -82%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 82% −$940
world 7% +$1
crypto 5% −$53
other 3% +$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 85¢ $1 10m
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 28¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $3 10h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $1 19h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $1 19h
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $1 20h
UK Recession in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 18% -38.7%
≤30d 39 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 18% -38.7%
≤90d 39 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 18% -38.7%
all 39 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 18% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 18% -38.7%
10% -48.5% 8% -44.5%
15% -53.5% 5% -49.9%
20% -58.1% 5% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.22 · official $160.22 (match) · 161 history records