Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a57…7b0a
sports · 120 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,067 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,821 · open −$3,754
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,333
Realized+$8,821
Unrealized−$3,754
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses67 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3,871
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,896
Trades / day112.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,900
7 days−$1,079
14 days+$8,821
30 days+$8,821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $5,658 $7,328 +$1,670 (+30%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 71¢ 0¢ $3,875 $3 −$3,872 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 36¢ 0¢ $1,554 $2 −$1,552 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,555 +$2,365 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19,436 −$15,084 -78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,511 +$1,769 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,055 −$1,055 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,448 +$976 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,668 +$2,831 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,942 +$1,894 +64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,394 +$1,466 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,642 −$847 -52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,380 −$744 -54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,129 −$1,166 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,875 +$805 +43%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,095 −$1,095 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4,090 −$1,435 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,729 −$2,113 -77%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $846 −$727 -86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $304 −$79 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $989 +$1,011 +102%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,753 +$1,953 +111%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,961 +$1,485 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,063 −$265 -25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $701 −$701 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,476 +$2,557 +103%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,860 −$1,540 -54%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $942 +$2 +0%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $57 +$148 +257%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,160 +$905 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,164 +$2,317 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $989 −$989 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 09 $1,481 −$1,481 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $35 +$42 +120%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $600 +$440 +73%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,702 +$1,298 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $241 −$241 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,410 +$3,590 +149%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4,763 +$2,880 +60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $753 +$1,247 +166%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $945 −$945 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $694 −$694 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,920 +$2,080 +108%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $686 +$354 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $353 +$53 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,483 −$909 -61%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,612 −$1,612 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,992 −$1,992 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $219 −$219 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,818 +$1,665 +59%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,079 +$504 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$4,157
other 3% +$1,670
finance 1% −$760
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,568 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 22¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 45¢ $1,108 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 45¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 11¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 4¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 19¢ $64 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 21¢ $175 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $5,493 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $1,144 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 30¢ $366 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 37¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 37¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 37¢ $333 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $432 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $136 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $146 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 49% -10.1%
≤30d 117 +13.1% +2.4% 57% 53% -5.8%
≤90d 117 +13.1% +2.4% 57% 53% -5.8%
all 117 +13.1% +2.4% 57% 53% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 53% -5.8%
10% -7.4% 51% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -16.4% 47% -23.1%
20% -24.6% 44% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,332.99 · official $7,332.99 (match) · 1299 history records