Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a57…08f0 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$165 (+10%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 41% -9.9%
≤30d 63 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 41% -9.9%
≤90d 63 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 41% -9.9%
all 63 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 41% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 41% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.1% 29% -18.5%
15% -16.1% 24% -26.4%
20% -24.3% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$73 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$50 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records