Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a5a…b6c6 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$720 (-5%) realized −$734 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%91W / 108L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$512
14 days−$352
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$614
weather 30% −$313
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.9% -24.8% 67% 33% -45.2%
≤30d 182 -30.9% -37.5% 47% 31% -14.5%
≤90d 199 -32.6% -39.0% 46% 31% -14.7%
all 199 -32.6% -39.0% 46% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 31% -14.7%
10% -44.8% 21% -22.8%
15% -50.2% 13% -30.3%
20% -55.1% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$734
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses91 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage42d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $81 $96 +$14 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $70 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $149 −$147 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $111 +$38 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $533 −$339 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $150 −$95 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $289 +$122 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$134 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$15 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$23 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$93 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $195 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$62 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,077 +$166 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $480 +$16 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $120 −$117 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $572 +$8 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$21 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $430 +$59 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $518 +$42 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $364 +$122 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $65 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $149 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $149 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 73¢ $111 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $111 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $99 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $97 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 66¢ $244 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 64¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 13¢ $55 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 30¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 36¢ $123 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 41¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $284 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $150 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $230 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.69 · official $95.69 (match) · 763 history records