Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a5e…8fd0
sports · 1040 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$7,650 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12,481 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$161
Realized−$12,481
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses575 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,187
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1036 / 1040
History coverage113d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 1036 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,317
7 days−$2,732
14 days−$6,212
30 days−$14,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner G2 78¢ 98¢ $62 $77 +$15 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 63¢ 86¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 46¢ 70¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 30¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Ninjas in Pyjamas 64¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 40¢ 0¢ $577 $0 −$577 (-100%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) G2 46¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 59¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 48¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5) Team Secret Whales 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $510 $0 −$510 (-100%)
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $492 $0 −$492 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 69¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega GIANTX 46¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner 9z 67¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 62¢ 0¢ $630 $0 −$630 (-100%)
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Colossal Gaming 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 29¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) JD Gaming 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Kiwoom DRX 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$59 +35%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$22 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $36 +$27 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$23 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$6 -75%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$6 -13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$10 -81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $127 −$60 -48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $104 −$82 -79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $363 −$209 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$203 -67%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $212 +$104 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $267 −$265 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $382 −$379 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $518 −$510 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $456 +$443 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $852 −$100 -12%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $919 −$748 -81%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$441 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $327 −$100 -31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,241 +$511 +41%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 +$136 +67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $590 −$580 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $305 +$348 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $358 +$122 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $505 +$275 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$12,720
other 0% +$247
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $10 29m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 78¢ $62 30m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $225 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $166 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics 99¢ $166 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 76¢ $129 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $42 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 24¢ $27 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 60¢ $69 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 36¢ $36 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 71¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $109 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 81¢ $55 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 52¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 73¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $20 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 57¢ $36 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $5 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 50¢ $5 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $4 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $4 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $2 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 11¢ $2 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +28.4% +16.2% 52% 49% -18.9%
≤30d 240 +12.2% +1.5% 51% 50% -27.4%
≤90d 853 -4.0% -13.1% 52% 50% -13.2%
all 1036 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 52% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 52% -13.1%
10% -18.8% 45% -21.4%
15% -26.6% 38% -29.0%
20% -33.8% 29% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.70 · official $159.12 (match) · 2380 history records